FED:Swine flu goes `post-pandemic`

AAP General News (Australia)
08-11-2010
FED:Swine flu goes `post-pandemic`

By Danny Rose, Medical Writer

SYDNEY, Aug 11 AAP - Australia has enjoyed a "very quiet flu year" so far, a dramatic
turnaround from last winter and supporting the WHO's declared end to the global swine
flu pandemic.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) announced on Tuesday the a(H1N1) virus had reached
the post-pandemic phase, after monitoring showed a significant and sustained easing in
global transmission.

Sydney-based Professor William Rawlinson said this was a "good sign" for the planet,
and it reflected a much reduced rate of infection in Australia this winter.

"This year it has been, so far, a very quiet flu year," Prof Rawlinson, a senior virologist
and visiting fellow at the University of NSW's School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular
Sciences.

"... although I've got to say of the small number of cases we have seen so far, most
have been H1 (swine flu).

"We could still see a re-emergence but I think it is a good sign, and it was good that
we didn't see as much damage as we might have seen."

The swine flu first emerged in Mexico early last year and it raced around the the world,
infecting its first people on Australian soil in May 2009.

There are still new swine flu infections occurring, and NSW authorities last week called
for those not yet vaccinated to do so pointing to at least seven recent cases which had
required hospital care.

Prof Rawlinson said more cases were likely until the end of winter and, overall, the
swine flu's impact on Australia could be described as "moderate to mild".

"You've got to remember that during the peak in winter 2009, we had a pregnant woman
or someone else with H1 pandemic strain infection in virtually every ICU (intensive care
unit) throughout the country," Prof Rawlinson said.

"I can't remember the last time I saw pregnant women in ICU dying from influenza, except
for last year."

"And if that was your partner or child in ICU you wouldn't think it was a mild season."

The World Health Organisation (WHO) said New Zealand and India were still seeing localised
outbreaks of the virus.

But for most of the world, swine flu transmission now resembled that of a seasonal
influenza virus and it would circulate in this way for some years to come.

"The world is no longer in phase six of the pandemic alert," WHO director general Margaret
Chan said.

"We are now moving into the post-pandemic period. The new H1N1 virus has largely run its course."

Dr Chan said 20 - 40 per cent of the global population had been exposed to the virus,
while effective vaccination and "pure good luck" had helped to keep it under control.

While new strains of the virus did develop showing signs of resistance to front-line
treatments, these variants did not manage to circulate widely.

"This pandemic has turned out to be much more fortunate than what we feared a little
over a year ago," Dr Chan said.

"We have been aided by pure good luck (as) the virus did not mutate during the pandemic
to a more lethal form."

Australia remains in the "PROTECT" phase of its pandemic response plan and this will
not be reviewed until after winter.

A swine flu infection will be mild in most cases but severe in some, and those at particular
risk include pregnant women and people with underlying chronic medical conditions.

AAP dr/it

KEYWORD: FLU AUST

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